This is why COVID-19 daily case count in Mumbai will not go below 600

The doctors and experts in Mumbai and Maharashtra have expressed concern over the slow tapering of the second wave in the state, even as India witnesses a downward trend in coronavirus cases.

Explaining further, a senior Mantralaya official told TOI that most states, which saw a severe second wave such as Delhi and Karnataka, are recording low COVID-19 infections now. Only Maharashtra continues to oscillate between 8,000 to 10,000 cases every day.

In Mumbai, too, senior doctors believe the local numbers won’t dip below 600 cases a day. Even if they do, it would be for a few days in between, said a BMC doctor. 

Also Read: COVID-19: Maharashtra Govt Issues New Level 3 Restrictions Over Concerns of Delta Plus Variant

During the end of the first wave in December 2020-January, cases dropped to 300-plus on a couple of days before the second wave’s rise began in late February.

According to experts, the reasons behind this stagnant decline in cases is due to the accurate reporting of COVID-19 data to the size of the state to the density of the population. While others believe that it is due to the different “peaking time” for different districts in Maharashtra.

However, in Mumbai, it could be a mix of more testing, better reporting and population density. BMC additional commissioner Suresh Kakani said it could be due to a huge population density or the floating population.

Districts in Vidarbha were the first to report a surge in the second wave in February before the wave spread to the other districts. At present six districts seem to be at their peak. Reports suggest that Kolhapur, Sangli, Sindhudurg and Osmanabad account for 60 per cent of the daily cases reported in Maharashtra now.

Meanwhile, a doctor from a government-run hospital provides a statistical answer based on the average number of tests conducted in Maharashtra daily. Currently, 2.5 lakh tests are being conducted daily. Given the population size and failure of people to adhere to COVID-appropriate behaviour, one can presume that the state will witness at least 2 per cent positivity daily. 

Also Read: Maharashtra: Has the third wave of coronavirus already hit the state?

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